Stopping World War Three Read online

  The Commander pointed to two vacant seats indicating where we should sit and then moved towards the rostrum. He stood on the dais in front of a lectern, pausing for effect, and then introduced himself. As soon as he began to speak, his tone, his attitude, and his body language led me to believe that his vocation had once been a teacher or a lecturer.

  ‘The reason you’ve been brought here may already be known to you;; the rest will soon discover the reason why. And there will be counselling for some of you,’ he began, ‘however, I’m sure you’ll all be interested in our briefing today. Thereafter, you may discuss the matter among yourselves, enjoy the refreshments, and stay for the night, or leave to fulfil the arrangements you may have already made. We’re fortunate to have over one hundred bedrooms here so please consider this place as a hotel. Not as the Hilton, of course, but as a hotel. Fine! We start off with the words ‘Petroleum... Oil!’ A commodity essential to the running of both the Eastern and the Western world, not only for use in vehicles for travels and the transport of goods but also in factories to keep machinery producing merchandise. And who controls a large proportion of the oil extracted from the ground? OPEC... the Oil Petroleum Exporting Countries comprised mainly of Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia. This is not surprising when you learn thaT the Middle East has sixty per cent of the world’s oil reserves. Over the past thirty years, the oil moguls have accumulated enormous wealth by exporting oil but they have made little use of the revenues. They’ve built some townships, made many roads, provided certain facilities for their people and eliminated taxes, but at the end of the day they have sat back and enjoyed the income, dependant solely on oil production, rather than to establish factories or manufacture goods to compete in world markets. Oil is their sole economy. Everything would be fine if this planet had unlimited stocks of it but those reserves will eventually become exhausted. At that time, the members of OPEC will wring their hands and wail misfortune. When will this happen? Almost certainly towards the third quarter of the twenty-first century. But what will they do when the oil runs out? I think that’s fairly obvious. They don’t have the ability or commitment to compete in world markets against the superior manufacturing production of Japan, Germany, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan or China. In any case, those with the funds will be very reluctant to stump up investment or train the vast number of workers required to produce the necessary skills. Joint ventures with other countries would accelerate development plans but their past record of attitudes with regard to negotiation has been appalling. Their view of foreigners is almost xenophobic. Western countries have learned their lesson. They will not be duped again. So where does that leave OPEC in the year 2050 when oil peters out in the Middle East. The rich sheiks will disappear to other countries taking their fortunes with them. The region becomes impoverished within a few months and the people will seek help from elsewhere which may not be forthcoming. There will be chaos, famine and disease, looting and murder. Crime will escalate to insurmountable proportions. Is it any surprise that they will take action in the only way they know? The Holy War! The Jihad! The unification of Islam in the Middle East as a new empire or world power within the next hundred years where those left behind from the debacle will seek to establish themselves in any way they can. Islam is the youngest of the world’s major religions. It is also one of the largest and fast- growing and is dominant in the Middle East and Africa. Currently it has over one-and-a-half billions followers. Yes, my friends. Over one-and-a-half billion! Today, large areas of India are Muslim and it is estimated there are over fifty million Chinese. After the death of the Prophet Mohammed in 632 a.d. there were Arab conquests in Egypt, Persia and the Levant. At that time, a dispute arose between two of the leading families in Mecca... the Hashemites and the Umaiyids. They argues who should succeed to the leadership of the Moslem community. The Hashemites were the Prophet’s own family and they claimed the succession should go to a relative of Mohammed. The Umaiyids claimed in accordance with the tradition of the Arabs... the Sunna... that it should go to the most suited person to be the Caliph. The Umaiyids, established in Damascus, won the argument in the end. The Hashemites continued to press their claim, gaining the support of those in the God-fearing and puritan Arab armies who resented the extravagance and nepotism characterising Umaiyid rule. They became known as the Shias from the term Shia Ali, the Party of Ali. In terms of percentages, the Sunnis comprise some eighty-five per cent of all Muslims... the Shias about fifteen per cent. To date, Islam is predominant in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, parts of Israel, North Africa, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, parts of India, the Soviet Union, the Eastern part of Turkey, Albania, and even China while over two million pilgrims go to Mecca each year. Are there any questions?’

  ‘Although there are many Muslims in the world,’ called out one man at the back end of the hall, ‘they are spread fairly widely over the globe. They have no organisation or leadership and their past record shows that they spend most of their time fighting each other. What possesses you to believe that they will change their attitude towards each other to mobilise themselves in an orderly fashion to threaten the world in the next hundred years? To my mind, Shias and Sunnis will always be at each other’s throats,’‘

  ‘Let me try to explain to you the background to the issue. The once great Muslim empire no longer exists but they are united by their faith which forms a common bond between them. The main differences affecting the Shias and the Sunnis is the succession to the Caliph after the death of Mohammed. To change from a Shia to a Sunni, all one has to do is to revise his opinion in the privacy of his conscience about the right to succession. The main differences beyond that are matters of custom, ceremony and the superstitions that tend to be grafted on most religions. Shias invest leaders with a spiritual authority taking them closer to Allah than ordinary people. Sunni jurists are distinguished by their superior learning. However, the Shias have messianic notions of a Mahdi ... a God-guided deliverer. That is the key to their future.’

  ‘Do the Sunnis agree about the Mahdi?’ asked a smart young woman seated in the centre of the auditorium.

  ‘No they don’t’ retorted Yasood firmly. ‘But when the chips are down and the oil starts to run out, someone is likely to emerge as their leader. A person with charisma... aura... the gift of the gab... call it what you like. And when he comes, the Shias and the Sunnis will look to him as their saviour. Once the people throw their weight behind the man the rest will follow because many of them are fanatics.’

  ‘Or perhaps it will be a woman,’ suggested the smart young woman.

  ‘The role of women in Islam is extremely low. Mohammed did not raise their status to that of men although he did improve it significantly. The practice of murdering female babies was forbidden and the number of wives a Muslim could have was limited to four... provided a man could afford them. Women in Islam are still regarded as inferior to men. The Mahdi will not be a woman.’

  ‘When is this Mahdi supposed to come?’ asked a man near the front. ‘When?’

  ‘They say that everyone knows when he arrives. This year, next year, in twenty years’ time... who knows? But I presume he will arrive within the next forty or fifty years. He may not come from the desert or be a camel driver like Mohammed. More likely he will be reading at Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard or Yale. What I’m saying is that the Mahdi will not be a rough illiterate person but well-educated and knowledgeable about logic and the strategy of war. He will also be adept at making alliances and arranging funds for the Jihad so that it has adequate finance for the conflict. We must not underestimate the situation. The most dangerous feature, however, is that the sectarian difference between Muslims hardly counts when compared with the political adversity between the revolutionary Islamic government in Iran, the monarchy in

  Saudi Arabia or the secular regime in Iraq despite its promise to become a democracy. Like families, there will always be arguments between them but when push comes to
shove they will unite under the Mahdi and the forces of Islam will be unleashed on an unsuspecting world.’

  ‘I don’t understand how they can do that,’ ventured a man on the left-hand side of the room. ‘How can they possible unite from all those countries to attack the rest of the world. Once the oil runs out, they’re finished. They’ll have nothing to go on... not even food for themselves.’

  ‘That’s exactly my point,’ related Yasood to a hushed audience. ‘By the year 2050 they’ll probably be able to amass over two billion supporters, near enough a quarter of the world’s population. Who will stand up against them in the Middle East, in Europe, in Africa, India, and perhaps even China? Their roots in Indonesia, the Philippines and in other Pacific areas will help them to encompass the world. They will be formidable. The nucleus is already there, laying dormant, ready to be awakened.’

  ‘Why haven’t the developed countries in the West recognised this danger?’ asked another man in the centre.

  They’re too busy trying to establish stability within their own confines. Economies have over-stretched themselves and they are having trouble trying to reduce their financial deficits. In addition, after the disastrous conflicts in South Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan they prefer to look in other directions until a crisis occurs.’ He paused for a moment to allow his words to be absorbed by the audience. ‘I would like to talk to you further about the 21st Century Crusaders but I recognise that many of you have travelled long distances to get here without a break. If you take the double doors to your left you’ll come to the refectory where you can relax and enjoy some refreshments. This is not a secret society. Please feel free to discuss anything you wish with your colleagues.’

  I got to my feet amid the hubbub as Penny Smith took my arm and led me out of the auditorium. A buffet lunch was waiting for us and I had the chance to take a deep breath and assess the situation. About one hundred people had been invited although I had no idea from which countries they had come. I could hear some of them speaking foreign languages detecting French and German although some people spoke in English. Before we could help ourselves to the aperitifs which were set out neatly on a table,

  Commander Yasood moved towards me.

  ‘Sorry about all the rush, Jason,’ he apologised smoothly. ‘A great deal of activity is going on at the moment. Look... I want you to go on from here to Tel Aviv tonight. I have a house in Arlosorof Road which you can use. The key to the front door is in this envelope together with another address in Jaffa. I want you to go there to see a man by the name of Menel.’

  ‘Menel,’ I repeated woodenly. ‘Who’s he?’

  ‘He’ll tell you all about his role in the organisation when you meet. It is important, I assure you.’

  ‘Who else is going to see him from here?’

  ‘Jason,’ returned the Commander curtly. ‘We all have different parts to play. It’s a case of horses for courses.’

  ‘So why am I here?’ I challenged sharply. ‘The only thing I do well is to play bridge. How can that help you?’

  ‘You’ll find out when you meet Menel,’ he replied easily. ‘Now... enjoy the food! It all has to be eaten otherwise the staff will have it for breakfast for the rest of the week.’ He pressed the envelope with the door key into my hand and laughed at his own joke before walking away to talk to other people. 89

  ‘What’s he talking about?’ I asked Penny directly. ‘You must know.’

  ‘It’s been left for Menel to tell you,’ she replied. ‘But seeing him has nothing to do with playing bridge. I can assure you.’

  I became angry with her for not confiding in me but in the presence of one hundred strangers I was forced to remain silent. It then dawned on me that she probably had no idea anyway. No one ever told anyone anything of importance in this organisation. Penny had created havoc with my life and now she kept her distance with regard to important matters which I needed to know. I had no doubt that, like Primar, she would soon be asking me to trust her. After the refreshments we returned to the auditorium to listen to Commander Yasood once more.

  ‘You have now advance warning of the war to be waged within the next one hundred years,’ he began to his captive audience. ‘It will become known in the history books as World War Three. What is amazing is the fact that history tends to repeat itself. On two occasions in the twentieth century the Allies were caught out at the beginning of hostilities with their pants down. Despite advance information at the beginning of both World Wars they were totally unprepared. It would be the same again except for our intervention but this time any country under attack, which is caught on the hop, will be unable to recover in the face of a severe nuclear attack. Looking back at the Crusades... the Western invasion of the Holy Land between 1097 and 1191 a.d. against the Muslim powers... let’s see what lessons can be learned. The concept of the Crusades was to allow aid to fellow Christians in the east although some historians identify them as a result of social, economic and institutional growth in Western Europe. The prime goal was not to become involved in battle but to establish the successful defence of fortified positions. Open battle was a very uncertain and risky business in those days. The number of manoeuvred campaigns which ended without a major battle or siege far outnumbered the number of actual battles. Not only that but the war was seasonal. Once winter set in, field armies generally dispersed. However, such was Europe’s fear of Muslim power that the concept of the Crusades persisted well into the seventeenth century. Fortunately, in spite of the rhetoric about the Holy War, the Jihad made little difference to the average peasant whether his rules was Christian or Muslim. The force of Islam was unorganised, without a real military campaign, and they used brute force, courage and martyrdom in place of useful weaponry and strategic and tactical planning. You see, on the Christian side, there were never more than two thousand knights and twenty thousand foot soldiers. Furthermore, it was impossible to gather them all together. In rural areas, the Crusaders lacked sufficient numbers to alter the pattern of government seriously. It will be different this time. So too will be the weaponry. In the first Crusades, armoured knights on horseback used lances and swords but the primary weapons used by soldiers was the crossbow,. In the twenty-first century, the forces of Islam will threaten with weapons bearing nuclear warheads. Every country, every government, every person on this planet will live in absolute fear of annihilation.’

  ‘If what you say is correct,’ demanded the man at the rear of the hall who had asked a question earlier, ‘what happened with Saddam Hussein and Iraq? He was supposed to have had weapons of mass destruction. He also committed himself to wage a vicious war with Iran before attempting the acquisition of Kuwait. But he didn’t use them.’

  Yasood’s face broke into a smile. ‘He didn’t have nuclear power or the weapons of that nature to use. In every organisation there are mavericks who make errors and try to cover them up. They are often faced with desperate measures to hide their inefficiencies. Saddam Hussein was no different. He almost made Iraq bankrupt by pursuing an all-out war with Iran, borrowing the finance from Kuwait. When the conflict ended, he demanded that the loan granted be cancelled. When Kuwait refused to do so, he invaded them to wipe out the debt and capture the oil wells. Every organisation has such problems... people who are over-zealous and over-ambitious who strive to aspire to higher levels... treading on others in their attempt to get there. A typical example can be seen in the break-up of Yugoslavia where there was a war of ethnic proportions. Muslims clearly were the main target and many of them died unnecessarily. Such zeal hopefully does not exist with our cause and we are watchful and observant to prove it does not happen. If it did, it would impose a greater burden upon us and be extremely unhelpful in stopping a Third World War. If we fail, the number of deaths worldwide will be counted in the hundreds of millions or mankind may even destroy itself on this planet. Are there any more questions?’

  The room r
emained silent and sombre for a few moments as the audience digested the information. Commander Yasood wasted few words in his deliberation.

  ‘What can anyone do to prevent a nuclear invasion?’ asked another young woman inquisitively. ‘We may be able to learn which countries have nuclear weapons but how do we stop them from invading us with them?’

  ‘We have a man in this room today who may well be able to avert the danger with a weapon that has a more devastating effect than nuclear weapons.’

  A ripple of comment ran through the audience and I looked round to see whether anyone was going to own up to this revelation. Then Penny touched my arm gently.

  ‘It’s you!’ she uttered in a whisper. ‘He’s talking about you!’

  I stared at her in amazement. ‘Me? What are you talking about? I don’t know anything about weaponry!’

  ‘That’s why you’re seeing Menel tomorrow.’

  I gave her an old-fashioned look because I had no idea what she meant. The Commander continued to ramble on about the Crusades, Islam, World War Three and the future, and then the lecture came to an end. I opened the envelope he had given me to find a door-key and the address in Arlosoroff Road in Tel Aviv and that of Menel in Jaffa.